The Great Mental Models

This book starts off explaining why mental models are required and gives many examples of situations show its importance. A lot of books do this, it’s like they try to entice you into reading the book. But I’d already decided to read it, so its hard to get through.

This book leans on Charlie Munger’s philosophy. Early on he shares a Munger quote:

I believe in the discipline of mastering the best of what other people have figured out When mental models are not applied then you probably have failed understanding of a given situation.

One example is the context of an elephant and a blind person who has never experienced an elephant. They might mistake an elephant ear to be a fan, the trunk tusks might be mistaken as a spear, or the trunk as a snake.

The main chunk of the book explains general thinking concepts that are akin to common sense. For example:

1. Map is not the territory
2. First order principles (using 5 whys or scratch method)
3. Thought experiments
4. Circle of competence
5. Inversion - begin with the end in mind. Work both ways.
6. Falsifiability
7. Second order thinking. Literally just thinking about the consequences of consequence. Reminded me of playing chess or even 8-ball pool.

Probabilistic thinking is a mental model I naturally lean towards. I avoid thinking in black & white or definite yes/no thinking. Instead, things tend to be more of a grey area, belonging to a spectrum of possibilities. In reality, probabilities should update based the most up to date information too.

I enjoyed learning about Occams razor; the simplest explanation, if most probable, is the most likely. Hanlons razor was equally facinating; it’s not malice, it’s probably stupidity or ignorance.

There are a few supporting ideas, one that stuck out is necessity and sufficiency. Where sometimes something might be necessary, or sufficient, and any combination of either or.

I learnt about blood-letting in this book, and how it was the suggested medical practice for over 2000 years. The idea that if you get sick you can bleed it out of you. But losing blood actually makes you weaker and might end up making your more sick.

I was reminded of Causation vs. Correlation in this book. The classic example of shark attacks increasing in correlation with ice cream sales. Though buying an ice cream doesn’t cause a shark attack. I think it was more likely summer time, which means it’s both hot enough for ice cream but also means more people are swimming.

Think through whether an idea is required or not before jumping to conclusions. Sometimes we have a bias toward ideas that support the conclusion we want, over the conclusion that actually is.

Quotes

The skill for finding the right solutions for the right problems is one form of wisdom

Our failures to update from interacting with reality spring primarily from three things: not having the right perspective or vantage point, ego-induced denial, and distance from the consequences of our decisions.

Admitting that we’re wrong is tough. It’s easier to fool ourselves that we’re right at a high level than at the micro level, because at the micro level we see and feel the immediate consequences.

There is an old adage that encapsulates this: “To the man with only a hammer, everything starts looking like a nail.”

In order to use a map or model as accurately as possible, we should take three important considerations into account: Reality is the ultimate update. Consider the cartographer. Maps can influence territories.